SALINE, MI Except for a few moments at the end of the first half when they somehow nearly imploded on 3 straight drives, USC looked very strong in a decisive win over Notre Dame. With a win next week at UCLA in the Rose Bowl, USC will surely head to the BCS Championship in Glendale. If USC stumbles next week and Florida wins in the SEC Championship against Arkansas, Florida move into the title game.

Given what I’m seeing, here’s the data points to get to the chances of Michigan getting to Glendale:
– USC losing to UCLA next week – 30% (UCLA doesn’t look that bad)
– Florida losing to Arkansas next week – 45%
– Florida beating Arkanas, but it’s ugly and voters don’t advance Florida (55% to win, 33% of not passing Michigan).

I come up with the following formula:
= (CHANCE OF USC LOSS)*(CHANCE OF FLORIDA LOSS + CHANCE OF FLORIDA WIN BUT NOT PASSING MICHIGAN)
= (.30)*[(.45)+(.55*.33)]
= 19% (.1895) with no margin for error (these figures are prefect perfect)

Other title hopes? Well, in theory you could have the unlikely scenario where Michigan dominates LSU or whomever they play in the Rose Bowl, USC and OSU play a stinker in the Glendale with USC sneaking by. The AP selects Michigan as their 2006-07 champion thus earning a split of the national title. I’m still working on the odds on this one. Meanwhile, here’s the latest BCS Bowl Projections from the major sources.

4 Comments

  1. Doesn’t look good. but don’t you think Michigan gets the nod over UF no matter what?

  2. Your math is a little fuzzy. Here is mine. I don’t back 1 in 3 UCLA wins. I put it at 1 in 4. I do say its 2 to 3 that UF loses or wins badly enough for Michigan to stay ahead of them. That puts the odds of Michigan in Glendale at 1/4*2/3 = 2/12 or 16%. isn’t that math right?

  3. mvictors

    Jim, your math is slightly off, it comes to 16.67%, or closer to 17%. Re: my math, keep in mind I broke out the chance that Florida wins (55%), times that likelihood that the win wasn’t good enough (33%) and added that to the Florida side of the figures.

  4. what is wrong with you guys? Florida is 30 times better than USC. think about who USC lost to. Michigan had their chance. It’s the Gators turn.

    hey brother, there’s no rooting interest here. We’re just citing the odds.