BCS Scenario: Buckeyes Lose to Michigan but still end up in BCS Championship?
ALEXANDRIA, VA NOVEMBER 18, 2003 While everyone is crunching all the BCS theories, here’s another one I call “The Luckeye Phenomenon”. Here’s how it goes: Let’s say all the things that have to happen for Michigan to weasel into the BCS championship occur. To repeat, Michigan beats OSU on Saturday, and LSU and USC lose one of their remaining games, and Michigan, as would be expected, gains enough in the computer poll to pass the other 2 loss teams (Texas, Tennessee, and Georgia).
Well, as I’m looking at the numbers, under the scenario of events that would seemingly put the Wolverines in the Sugar Bowl, I see a strong possibility that a 2 loss Ohio State, despite losing to Michigan, could still go to the BCS championship game and screw the Blue. Each computer poll loves the Buckeyes, they are ranked #2 in every one except for Jeff Sagarin who has them #3 (good ol’ Hoosier, Jeff).
If they lose to Michigan, the Buckeye’s BCS computer average will drop, but by how much? I’d imagine losing to a top 10 team can’t hurt you that much. There is no “justice” in the computer ranking, i.e., the machine won’t automatically drop a defeated opponent behind the victor. Losing to Michigan certainly won’t hurt their schedule strength, which is a factor in the computer polls as well as its own component in the BCS calculation. Ohio State would drop down in the human polls, but again I ask how much? We are already assuming that USC and LSU lost…why would OSU drop below them? So if Georgia, Tennessee and/or Texas win out, would they be definitely be slotted higher than a two loss Ohio State? I don’t think so.